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wednesday, 18 july
2001
progress of negotiations
"I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway
Whatever it is, I'm against it...
No matter how they've changed it or
condensed it
I'm against it."
Groucho Marx
Two days into the Bonn talks - with
Ministers starting to arrive - things are
still looking bleak for the future of the
Kyoto Protocol.
In March this year, President Bush and the
US administration reneged on the treaty. But
the Kyoto Protocol could still come into
force if ratified by at least 55 countries,
together accounting for at least 55% of
carbon dioxide emissions by industrialized
countries (in 1990). If Japan and one other
member of the so-called Umbrella Group
(Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway)
refuses to ratify, the Protocol, it will be
dead.
Japan has therefore emerged as a key
country in these talks. There is clear public
support in the country for the Protocol (82%
in a recent poll). But the Japanese
Government under Prime Minister Koizumi has
repeatedly refused to say whether Japan will
ratify Kyoto if the US maintains its refusal
to do so.
At yesterday's Press Conference, Japanese
Environment Minister Kawaguchi said that
Japan was seeking a large "free gift" towards
its Kyoto target - which amounts to a 28%
reduction in CO2 emissions from the "business
as usual" scenario. Japan wants a limit of
3.7% towards this target from domestic sinks,
excluding other non-domestic action under the
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint
Implementation (JI), where it is opposing any
limits at all. President of the COP talks Jan
Pronk has suggested a 3% limit, including CDM
and JI. At yesterday's negotiations over
compliance, the Japanese delegation placed
almost the whole text in brackets - meaning
that Japan does not accept any of the current
compliance proposals, suggesting that it
wants Kyoto to be an entirely voluntary
agreement!
In effect, the Japanese Government appears
to be blackmailing the COP talks. If it gets
what it wants over sinks and compliance, it
may agree to ratify despite the US. If not,
not.
Of course, this position merely opens the
doors for other countries with objections to
the Kyoto Protocol to behave in the same way.
For example, Russia, Canada and Australia are
demanding that nuclear power is included in
the CDM. Australia is even arguing for a
"workshop" on alternatives to the Kyoto
Protocol before the COP 7 talks in
Marrakesh.
Meanwhile, the European Union is in a
state of some confusion about its negotiating
position. Belgium, which currently holds the
EU presidency, is actively seeking compromise
with Umbrella Group countries. Germany and
Austria are taking a more hard line position.
There is really no reason for the EU to treat
the Umbrella countries as a group: given the
US and Australian positions the EU should be
seeking individual negotiations with more
progressive parties.
The UK will find it almost impossible to
play its usual role as a "bridge" between the
US and EU positions (or, more cynically, a
Trojan Horse for US interests) given the US
rejection of the Protocol. The UK Government
has not even sorted out who is the lead
Minister at the talks. Following the UK
General Election, Margaret Beckett took over
from John Prescott as Environment Secretary.
Prescott moved to the Cabinet Office, but
kept some responsibility for climate talks.
Both Ministers appear to be coming to Bonn;
it is far from clear how they will work
together.
The EU has (belatedly) begun bilateral
talks with the G77 group of developing
countries and with Japan. The EU should move
towards the G77 in the finance section of the
talks, on technology transfer and capacity
building.
When NGO representatives met Mr Pronk, it
became clear that there was barely any
process in place for making progress in the
four areas for the talks (Finance, LULUCF,
Mechanisms, Compliance). Mr Pronk is on the
defensive following widespread criticism of
his conduct of the talks.
Commenting on the progress of the talks,
Friends of the Earth Environment Campaigner
Kate Hampton said:
"In Bonn, the world's Governments face a
fundamental challenge. Does the world have
political institutions capable of dealing
with the terrible global threat of climate
change? So far, the deeply depressing answer
seems to be no. If this is indeed the case,
it will have profound political consequences.
What legitimacy will Governments have with
their populations, if they cannot address one
of the greatest dangers facing the planet?
What respect will politicians be entitled to,
if like George Bush they refuse to admit the
crisis even exists?
Kyoto has strong public support all over
the world. Ordinary people know that climate
change threatens their homes, their jobs and
in many cases their lives. If Kyoto is
destroyed, those who are responsible will
never be forgiven or forgotten."
Contact:
Ian Willmore 0174 1260 4808 or 00 44 7887
641 344
Howard Mollett 00 41 792 160 206
Daniel Mittler (Lifeboat) 0173 923 4747
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